Export growth slowdown
The exports of non-fuel goods and services from Russia grew after the pace of the global economy. However, global economic growth will slow down: from 3.7% in 2017–2018 to 3.5% in 2021.
“The general slowdown in the growth of exports of non-fuel goods and services to 2.5–3.5% will have a negative impact on the Russian economy in 2019–2021,” economists of the HSE note.
A more favorable scenario, according to the authors of the forecast, is impossible without a rise in oil prices, accelerating exports and a radical reduction in the administrative and criminal prosecution of businessmen, which hinders entrepreneurial activity.
The contribution of increasing the retirement age to economic growth will be insignificant - less than 0.1 percentage points in 2019–2020, and not more than 0.2 percentage points in 2021, economists of the HSE said.
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